Kondratieff Waves in the World System Perspective

Andrey Korotayev and Grinin Leonid

Macroeconomics from Socionet

Abstract: The analysis of long economic cycles allows us to understand long-term world-system dynamics, to develop forecasts, to explain crises of the past, as well as the current global economic crisis. The article offers an historical sketch of research on K-waves; it analyzes the nature of Kondratieff waves that are considered as a special form of cyclical dynamics that emerged in the industrial period of the World System history. It offers a historical and theoretical analysis of K-wave dynamics in the World System framework; in particular, it studies the influence of the long wave dynamics on the changes of the world GDP growth rates during the last two centuries. Special attention is paid to the interaction between Kondratieff waves and Juglar cycles. The article is based on substantial statistical data, it extensively employs quantitative analysis, contains numerous tables and diagrams. On the basis of the proposed analysis it offers some forecasts of the world economic development in the next two decades.

Keywords: economic cycles; world system; Kondratieff waves; Juglar cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B1 E3 E6 N1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 42
Date: 2013-02-28
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-his and nep-hpe
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nos:wuwpma:emanova_elena.12760-kondratieffworldsyst

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