Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM Business Surveys

Kajal Lahiri and George Monokroussos

Discussion Papers from University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics

Abstract: We study the role of the well-known monthly diffusion indices produced by the Institute or Supply Management in nowcasting current quarter US GDP growth. We investigate their marginal impact on these nowcasts when large unbalanced (jagged edge) macroeconomic data sets are used in real time to generate them. We find some evidence that these ISM indices can be helpful in improving the nowcasts in the beginning of the month when new ISM information becomes available ahead of other monthly indicators.

Date: 2011
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec and nep-mac
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Journal Article: Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM business surveys (2013)
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