Confidence Bands for ROC Curves with Serially Dependent Data

Kajal Lahiri and Liu Yang

Discussion Papers from University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics

Abstract: We propose serial correlation robust asymptotic confidence bands for the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves estimated by quasi-maximum likelihood in the binormal model. Our simulation experiments confirm that this new method performs fairly well in finite samples. The conventional procedure is found to be markedly undersized in terms of yielding empirical coverage probabilities lower than the nominal level, especially when the serial correlation is strong. We evaluate the three-quarter-ahead probability forecasts for real GDP declines from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and find that one would draw a misleading conclusion about forecasting skill if serial correlation is ignored.

Date: 2013
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-ets and nep-for
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Journal Article: Confidence Bands for ROC Curves With Serially Dependent Data (2018)
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