Forecasting New Zealand's economic growth using yield curve information

Leo Krippner and Leif Thorsrud

No DP2009/18, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series from Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Abstract: We forecast economic growth in New Zealand using yield curve data within simple statistical models; i.e. typical OLS relationships that have been well-established for other countries, and related VAR specifcations. We find that the yield curve data has significant forecasting power in absolute terms and performs well relative to various benchmarks. Specifications including measures of the yield curve slope produce the best forecasts overall. Our results also highlight the benefits of fully exploiting the timeliness of yield curve information (i.e it is always available and up to date).

JEL-codes: E43 E44 E47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39 p
Date: 2009-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fdg, nep-for and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2009/18

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