The Impact of the African Swine Fever outbreak in China on global agricultural markets

Clara Frezal, Stephan Hubertus Gay and Claude Nenert

No 156, OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers from OECD Publishing

Abstract: In China, the outbreak of the African Swine Fever is expected to result in a 27% drop in the production of pigmeat, the country’s most consumed meat product. Using the OECD-FAO Aglink-Cosimo model, this paper examines the impact of this production shortfall on global markets for livestock products and animal feed over the short and the medium term. In particular, it compares outcomes if the changes induced by the ASF outbreak in China are temporary with outcomes that could result if current changes lead to a restructuring of Chinese protein demand.

Keywords: Agricultural trade; Feed market; Pandemic; Pigmeat (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C61 F17 Q11 Q17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-05-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-cna
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oec:agraaa:156-en

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