The long-term implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery measures on environmental pressures: A quantitative exploration

Rob Dellink, Christine Arriola, Ruben Bibas, Elisa Lanzi and Frank van Tongeren
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Christine Arriola: OECD
Ruben Bibas: OECD
Elisa Lanzi: OECD

No 176, OECD Environment Working Papers from OECD Publishing

Abstract: This paper analyses the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated government responses on the environment. It uses large-scale modelling to investigate the impact of sectoral and regional shocks to the economy until 2040. These detailed economic impacts are linked to a range of environmental pressures, including greenhouse gas emissions, emissions of air pollutants, the use of raw materials and land use change. The short-term reductions in environmental pressures are significant: in 2020, energy-related greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions dropped by around 7%. Environmental pressures related to agriculture observed a smaller drop in 2020. The reduction in the use of non-metallic minerals, including construction materials, reached double digits. From 2021, emissions are projected to increase again, gradually getting closer to the pre-COVID baseline projection levels as growth rates recover fully. But there is a long-term – potentially permanent – downward impact on the levels of environmental pressures of 1‑3%.

Keywords: air pollution; climate change; COVID-19; general equilibrium; land use change; materials use (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D58 O44 Q53 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-05-21
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env and nep-res
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oec:envaaa:176-en

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