Economic shocks and changes in global production structures: Methods for measuring economic resilience

Yoshihiro Hashiguchi, Norihiko Yamano and Colin Webb
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Yoshihiro Hashiguchi: OECD
Norihiko Yamano: OECD
Colin Webb: OECD

No 2017/09, OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers from OECD Publishing

Abstract: Conventional studies on the impacts of economic shocks using global input-output tables (sensitivity analyses) assume stable production structures and thus, only reveal the marginal impacts of changes in final demand. However, when economic shocks occur, whether at home or abroad, economic agents are expected to react to reduce the negative impact or amplify the positive effects. The ability of a country to contain economic losses can be defined as the resilience to economic shocks. Using the OECD's annual Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) tables, 1995 to 2011, this paper investigates the relationship between changes in final demand and production structures for 61 economies. Our findings are summarised as follows. Production and final demand structures tend to change to reduce the negative feedbacks from final demand shocks. During economic downturns, structures tend to change so that the dependence on domestic services increases, while the dependence on domestic demand for goods, and the dependence on foreign demand for domestic goods and services, both decrease. Therefore, the domestic service sector seems to play a key role in temporarily containing the negative feedback. Countries that are able to prop up their economy by domestic service sectors instead of domestic goods and foreign sectors are more resilient to negative economic shocks.

Keywords: economic resilience; global value chains; input-output; structural changes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 D57 E12 F47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-11-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hme, nep-int and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Working Paper: Economic shocks and changes in global production structure: methods for measuring economic resilience (2017)
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