A Leading Indicator of Austrian Exports Based on Truck Mileage

Gerhard Fenz () and Martin Schneider ()
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Gerhard Fenz: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Analysis Divison, http://www.oenb.at

Monetary Policy & the Economy, 2009, issue 1, 44–52

Abstract: The close correlation between economic activity and freight performance is emphasized in numerous international studies. With regard to Austria, timely information on truck mileage has been available since 2004 when Austria introduced road pricing. In this study, truck road pricing data compiled by the Austrian highway authority (ASFINAG) are analyzed for the first time with respect to their adequacy as a leading indicator for various macroeconomic indicators. The results show that truck mileage is a good leading indicator above all for goods exports. The timely availability provides an information advantage in analyzing economic developments of two to three months relative to the first release of export data by Statistics Austria.

Keywords: leading indicator; transport volume; export activity; business cycle; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E37 F17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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