Monitoring the economy in real time with the weekly OeNB GDP indicator: background, experience and outlook

Gerhard Fenz () and Helmut Stix
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Gerhard Fenz: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Analysis Divison, http://www.oenb.at

Monetary Policy & the Economy, 2021, issue Q4/20-Q1/21, 17-40

Abstract: This study presents the OeNB’s new weekly indicator of economic activity, which is based on a demand-side approach to measuring GDP and which relies on real-time data. The weekly OeNB GDP indicator (1) tracks economic development in Austria on a weekly basis; (2) provides estimates of the contributions of the main demand components of GDP; (3) focuses on seasonally adjusted year-on-year changes; and (4) considers shifts from cash to noncash consumer spending, thus taking into account behavioral changes in the use of payment instruments. The OeNB has published weekly GDP estimates since early May 2020 and has thus provided policymakers and the public with important and timely information on the state of the Austrian economy. First benchmarking results indicate that the weekly OeNB GDP indicator generated rather accurate results for aggregate economic activity in the first two quarters after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Austria. We describe the construction and the main features of the weekly OeNB GDP indicator, present its results for the period from March to December 2020, discuss the strengths and shortcomings of our approach and draw some lessons from more than eight months of weekly nowcasting with real-time data. Indicator updates will continue to be released during the COVID-19 pandemic at https:// www.oenb.at/Publikationen/corona/bip-indikator-der-oenb.html.

Keywords: GDP; nowcasting; COVID 19; real-time data; payments data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E01 E27 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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