PREDICTION OF CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY IN ROMANIA THROUGH THE USE OF LOGISTIC REGRESSION

Brindescu-Olariu Daniel () and Golet Ionut ()
Additional contact information
Brindescu-Olariu Daniel: West University of Timisoara, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration
Golet Ionut: West University of Timisoara,

Annals of Faculty of Economics, 2013, vol. 1, issue 1, 976-986

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to test weather data from synthetic financial statements publically available in Romania can be employed within a logistic regression model to accurately predict the corporate bankruptcy probability over the economic crisis period. The population initially subjected to our study included all the 26,980 companies from the Timis County that submitted financial statements for 2007 to the public authorities. As this population proved very heterogeneous, we focused on a more homogeneous group, composed of 4,327 companies. The target population was chosen by employing both economical and statistical criterions. The data from the synthetic financial statements was used to build 12 ratios, 5 of which have proven to be significant within a logistic model for predicting corporate bankruptcy. It was clear that other sources of information could help improve the accuracy of the predictions, but these sources are not easily accessible to most of the stakeholders. As the synthetic financial statements are publically available, evaluating their utility in the prediction of corporate bankruptcy was one of the main objectives of this research. The proposed model offers an in-sample overall 70.3% accuracy in the prediction of the bankruptcy event over a 5 - year period, with an out of sample overall accuracy of 67.6%. Under these circumstances, the model is considered to be of immediate practical utility, as it can represent a tool for performing a fast estimation of the bankruptcy probability of a company that fits the profile of the target population. As theoretical contributions, the research proves that the companies that filed for bankruptcy during the crisis period showed signs of weaknesses before the beginning of the crisis. Financial ratios that show relevance in the prediction of corporate bankruptcy at local level have been identified and their correlation with the bankruptcy probability has been evaluated. The model is expected to maintain its accuracy with minimal or no additional calibration for companies from the entire Romanian economy that fit the profile of the target population.

Keywords: bankruptcy; financial statement analysis; economic crisis; logistic regresion; accuracy rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C31 G33 M41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro/volume/2013/n1/103.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ora:journl:v:1:y:2013:i:1:p:976-986

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Annals of Faculty of Economics from University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catalin ZMOLE ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).