The effect of experts’ and laypeople’s forecasts on others’ stock market forecasts

Christoph Huber, Juergen Huber and Laura Hueber

No 57m6g, OSF Preprints from Center for Open Science

Abstract: With a large-scale online experiment with 1593 participants from the U.S. and the U.K. we explore whether and how people working in the finance industry and laypeople from the general population are influenced by information on other people’s forecasts when making forecasts on the future development of two indices and two stocks. We find that (i) laypeople’s forecasts are strongly influenced by information they get on other subjects’ forecasts, while financial professionals are much less influenced by information signals; (ii) signals by financial professionals influence all subject groups more than forecasts by laypeople; (iii) we observe a home bias in all subject groups, which can be mitigated by information signals; (iv) all subject groups expect lower forecast errors for financial professionals than for laypeople, hence we find evidence for trust in experts.

Date: 2019-08-18
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Journal Article: The effect of experts’ and laypeople’s forecasts on others’ stock market forecasts (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:osfxxx:57m6g

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/57m6g

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