Following Doctors’ Advice: Explaining the Issuance of Stay-at-Home Orders Related to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) by U.S. Governors

Gregg R. Murray and Susan M. Murray
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Gregg R. Murray: Augusta University
Susan M. Murray: Augusta University

No 92ay6, OSF Preprints from Center for Open Science

Abstract: Public health experts widely and strongly advocate for aggressive social distancing to slow the spread of serious infectious diseases. While government mandates to social distance protect public health, they can also impose substantial social and economic costs on those subject to them. As a result, government leaders may be reluctant to issue such mandates. The objective of this study is to identify political, social, economic, and scientific factors that influence governors of U.S. states to issue stay-at-home orders (SAHOs) or not to slow the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). It uses event history analysis to investigate the issuance of COVID-19-related gubernatorial SAHOs in the 50 U.S. states from March 1, 2020, the day after the first reported COVID-19-related death in the U.S., to April 10, 2020, several days after the last SAHO was issued. During this 41-day period, 42 of the 50 governors issued such orders affecting more than 90 percent of the country’s residents. The results indicate that scientific factors alone did not inform governors’ decisions. While public health factors related to the spread of the disease informed these decisions, political factors related to the partisanship of the governor and economic factors related to the health of the economy also informed them. The results also provide mixed support for scientific factors related to state healthcare capacity and external factors related to geographic diffusion.

Date: 2020-05-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:osfxxx:92ay6

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/92ay6

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