Long-Term GDP Forecasts and the Prospects for Growth

Theodore Modis

No aqcht, OSF Preprints from Center for Open Science

Abstract: The growth of GDP is considered as a natural-growth process amenable to description by the logistic-growth equation. The S-shaped logistic pattern provides good descriptions and forecasts for both nominal and real GDP per capita in the US over the last 80 years. This enables the calculation of a long-term forecast for inflation, which is to enter a declining trend not so far in the future. The two logistics are well advanced, more so for nominal GDP. The assumption for logistic growth works even better for Japan whose nominal GDP per capita has already completed tracing out an entire logistic trajectory. The economic woes of industrialized countries could be attributed to the saturation of growth there, as if a niche in nature had been filled to capacity. In contrast, GDP growth in China and India is in the very early stages of logistic growth still indistinguishable from exponential patterns. The ceiling of these logistics can be anywhere between 7 and 15 times today’s levels.

Date: 2013-09-30
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (16)

Downloads: (external link)
https://osf.io/download/61bf38872cba3f02cbae70b2/

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:osfxxx:aqcht

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/aqcht

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in OSF Preprints from Center for Open Science
Bibliographic data for series maintained by OSF ().