Strengths and weaknesses of the logistic function used in forecasting

Theodore Modis

No mrwu3, OSF Preprints from Center for Open Science

Abstract: This work describes strengths and weaknesses of the logistic function used in forecasting from a theoretical and a practical point of view. Theoretical topics treated are: generalizing the concept of competition, dividing the growth cycle in four "seasons", and using logistics simply qualitatively to obtain rare insights and intuitive understanding. Practical topics addresses are: determination of the uncertainties, how to decide whether to fit cumulative or per unit of time data, and how to deal with a bias toward a low ceiling. This article is my contribution to a massive review article with title "Forecasting: theory and practice" published in the International Journal of Forecasting.

Date: 2022-01-19
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:osfxxx:mrwu3

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/mrwu3

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