Building a predictive machine learning model of gentrification in Sydney

William Thackway, Matthew Kok Ming Ng, Chyi Lin Lee and Christopher Pettit
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Matthew Kok Ming Ng: University of New South Wales

No hkc96, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: In an era of rapid urbanisation and increasing wealth, gentrification is an urban phenomenon impacting many cities around the world. The ability of policymakers and planners to better understand and address gentrification-induced displacement hinges upon proactive intervention strategies. It is in this context that we build a tree-based machine learning (ML) model to predict neighbourhood change in Sydney. Change, in this context, is proxied by the Socioeconomic Index for Advantage and Disadvantage, in addition to census and other ancillary predictors. Our models predict gentrification from 2011-2016 with a balanced accuracy of 74.7%. Additionally, the use of an additive explanation tool enables individual prediction explanations and advanced feature contribution analysis. Using the ML model, we predict future gentrification in Sydney up to 2021. The predictions confirm that gentrification is expanding outwards from the city centre. A spill-over effect is predicted to the south, west and north-west of former gentrifying hotspots. The findings are expected to provide policymakers with a tool to better forecast where likely areas of gentrification will occur. This future insight can then inform suitable policy interventions and responses in planning for more equitable cities outcomes, specifically for vulnerable communities impacted by gentrification and neighbourhood change.

Date: 2021-12-16
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big, nep-cmp, nep-for and nep-ure
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:hkc96

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/hkc96

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