The Future of Climate Resilience in Wheat

Janet M Lewis and Matthew Reynolds

No hvd4e, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: As the most widely cultivated crop globally - providing 20% of all human calories and protein - there is an urgent need to increase wheat’s resilience to harsher climates [1]. The risk of simultaneous crop failures due to heat and/or drought in global “breadbaskets” has risen and is projected to rise further [2-4]. Severe water scarcity events are predicted for up to 60% of the world’s wheat-growing areas by the end of this century [5]. Furthermore, for each 1°C increase in average seasonal temperature, it is predicted that wheat yields will decrease by 6% on average globally, and much more in some already marginal environments where wheat is a traditional staple food [6,7]. At the current rate of yield gain, wheat production is predicted to fall well short of future demand due to population growth alone. Emerging environmental threats only make the challenge harder. On top of this, demand by consumers, farmers and the food industry is predicted to increase due to wheat’s high grain-protein content relative to other cereals, wide growing range and adaptability to most environmental stresses. Since farmer adoption of improved cultivars is a critical part of adaptation [8], new and more targeted breeding efforts are needed to ensure that wheat's climate resilience is maximized [9-11]. This article briefly outlines research that has been conducted and current research needs to develop climate resilient wheat.

Date: 2022-01-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-env
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:hvd4e

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/hvd4e

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