Potential demographic dividend for India, 2001 to 2061: A macro-simulation projection using the spectrum model

Neha Jain and Srinivas Goli
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Neha Jain: Indian Institute of Foreign Trade

No rvf9n, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: This paper projects potential demographic dividend for India for the period from 2001 to 2061 by using simulation modelling software, Spectrum 5.753 which integrates demographic and socio-economic changes. Two key findings, after checking their robustness, from the simulation modelling are: First, the effective demographic windows of opportunity for India is available for the period between 2011 and 2041, giving India roughly 30 years of demographic bonus. It is the period where the maximum of the first demographic dividend can be reaped before the ageing burden starts. Second, favourable demographic changes alone provide a demographic dividend of over 165,000 rupees (almost an additional 43 percentage) in terms of GDP per capita by 2061 when integrated with supporting socio-economic policy environment in terms of investment in human capital, family planning, decent employment opportunities, the rapid pace of urbanization, and agricultural growth.

Date: 2021-09-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa and nep-isf
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Working Paper: Potential demographic dividend for India, 2001 to 2061: A macro-simulation projection using the spectrum model (2021)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:rvf9n

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/rvf9n

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