Bayesian estimation of age-specific mortality and life expectancy for small areas with defective vital records

Carl Schmertmann and Marcos Roberto Gonzaga
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Carl Schmertmann: Florida State University

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Abstract: We develop a Bayesian regression model for small-area mortality schedules that simultaneously addresses the problems of small local samples and underreporting of deaths. We combine a relational model for mortality schedules with probabilistic prior information on death registration coverage – derived from demographic estimation techniques such as Death Distribution Methods, and from field audits done by public health experts. We test the model on small-area data from Brazil. Incorporating external estimates of vital registration coverage though priors improves small-area mortality estimates by accounting for under-registration, and by automatically producing measures of uncertainty.

Date: 2018-02-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-dem and nep-hea
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Bayesian Estimation of Age-Specific Mortality and Life Expectancy for Small Areas With Defective Vital Records (2018)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:syzwx

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/syzwx

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