Large-scale model selection in misspecified generalized linear models

Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle

Emre Demirkaya, Yang Feng, Pallavi Basu and Jinchi Lv

Biometrika, 2022, vol. 109, issue 1, 123-136

Abstract: SummaryModel selection is crucial both to high-dimensional learning and to inference for contemporary big data applications in pinpointing the best set of covariates among a sequence of candidate interpretable models. Most existing work implicitly assumes that the models are correctly specified or have fixed dimensionality, yet both model misspecification and high dimensionality are prevalent in practice. In this paper, we exploit the framework of model selection principles under the misspecified generalized linear models presented in Lv & Liu (2014), and investigate the asymptotic expansion of the posterior model probability in the setting of high-dimensional misspecified models. With a natural choice of prior probabilities that encourages interpretability and incorporates the Kullback–Leibler divergence, we suggest using the high-dimensional generalized Bayesian information criterion with prior probability for large-scale model selection with misspecification. Our new information criterion characterizes the impacts of both model misspecification and high dimensionality on model selection. We further establish the consistency of covariance contrast matrix estimation and the model selection consistency of the new information criterion in ultrahigh dimensions under some mild regularity conditions. Our numerical studies demonstrate that the proposed method enjoys improved model selection consistency over its main competitors.

Keywords: Bayesian principle; Big data; High dimensionality; Kullback–Leibler divergence; Model misspecification; Model selection; Robustness (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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