Welfare Cuts and Crime: Evidence from the New Poor Law

Eric Melander and Martina Miotto

The Economic Journal, 2023, vol. 133, issue 651, 1248-1264

Abstract: The New Poor Law reform of 1834 induced dramatic and heterogeneous reductions in welfare spending across English and Welsh counties. Using the reform in a difference-in-differences instrumental variables strategy, we document a robust negative relationship between the generosity of welfare provision and criminal activity. Results are driven by non-violent property crimes and are stronger during months of seasonal agricultural unemployment, highlighting the particularly criminogenic combination of welfare cuts and precarious work opportunities for the economically vulnerable.

Date: 2023
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