Artificial intelligence as a general-purpose technology: an historical perspective

Nicholas Crafts

Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2021, vol. 37, issue 3, 521-536

Abstract: This paper looks at the impact on productivity of general-purpose technologies such as steam, electricity, and ICT. It finds they had big effects but only with a lag which was substantial in the first two cases. The experience of the First Industrial Revolution is explored and it is found that this is not a template for a general-purpose technology having a major adverse effect on workers’ living standards. The essence of that industrial revolution was not rapid productivity growth in the short run, but the ‘invention of a new method of invention’ which increased technological progress in the long run. Since artificial intelligence is potentially a general-purpose technology that raises the productivity of research and development, it may be the basis for a Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Keywords: artificial intelligence; general purpose technology; industrial revolution; method of invention; total factor productivity growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (22)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:oxford:v:37:y:2021:i:3:p:521-536.

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