Government debt accumulation and non-performing loans: An ARDL bounds testing approach

Maria Karadima and Helen Louri

Economics and Business Letters, 2022, vol. 11, issue 4, 150-160

Abstract: Following the financial and debt crises in the euro area and the global COVID pandemic, governments supported their economies by increasing borrowing and accumulating debt with ambiguous long-run effects on non-performing loans (NPLs). We empirically investigate the determinants of NPLs using quarterly (2003Q1-2020Q2) aggregate data for Greece and applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. We offer new policy-making relevant evidence by showing that government debt has a significant and positive long-term impact on NPLs irrespective of possible short-term dynamics that appear to provide a temporary relief. Fiscal balance, on the contrary, exerts a negative long-term effect justifying the quest for surpluses post-COVID.

Date: 2022
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