Measuring Churner Influence on Pre-paid Subscribers Using Fuzzy Logic

Louise Columelli, Miguel Núñez del Prado and Leoncio Zarate-Gamarra
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Louise Columelli: EURECOM
Miguel Núñez del Prado: Universidad del Pacífico
Leoncio Zarate-Gamarra: Peru IDI

No 16-22, Working Papers from Centro de Investigación, Universidad del Pacífico

Abstract: In the last decades, mobile phones have become the major medium for communication between humans. The site effect is the loss of subscribers. Consequently, Telecoms operators invest in developing algorithms for quantifying the risk to churn and to influence other subscribers to churn. The objective is to prioritize the retention of subscribers in their network due to the cost of obtaining a new subscriber is four times more expensive than retaining subscribers. Hence, we use Extremely Random Forest to classify churners and non-churners obtaining a Lift value at 10% of 5.5. Then, we rely on graph-based measures such as Degree of Centrality and Page rank to measure emitted and received influence in the social network of the carrier. Our methodology allows summarising churn risk score, relying on a Fuzzy Logic system, combining the churn probability and the risk of the churner to leave the network with other subscribers.

Keywords: Churn; Data mining; Classification and Fuzzy logic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp
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