How Much of the Macroeconomic Variation in Eastern Europe is Attributable to External Shocks?

Bartosz Maćkowiak ()
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Bartosz Maćkowiak: Faculty of Economics and Business Studies, Humboldt University Berlin, Spandauer Strasse 1, 10178 Berlin, Germany.
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Bartosz Maćkowiak

Comparative Economic Studies, 2006, vol. 48, issue 3, 523-544

Abstract: We decompose by origin the sources of the variation in real aggregate output and aggregate price level in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. We find that a sizable fraction of the variation is attributable to external shocks, especially so for aggregate price level. We show that euroarea interest rate shocks can account for a significant fraction of the external spillover effects. We conclude that theoretical models of advanced transition economies and policy rules for these economies should feature a prominent role for external shocks. Comparative Economic Studies (2006) 48, 523–544. doi:10.1057/palgrave.ces.8100143

Date: 2006
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