Hierarchical Modelling of COVID-19 Death Risk in India in the Early Phase of the Pandemic

Wendy Olsen (), Manasi Bera, Amaresh Dubey (), Jihye Kim (), Arkadiusz Wiśniowski () and Purva Yadav ()
Additional contact information
Wendy Olsen: University of Manchester
Amaresh Dubey: Jawaharlal Nehru University
Jihye Kim: University of Manchester
Arkadiusz Wiśniowski: University of Manchester
Purva Yadav: Jawaharlal Nehru University

The European Journal of Development Research, 2020, vol. 32, issue 5, No 7, 1476-1503

Abstract: Abstract We improve upon the modelling of India’s pandemic vulnerability. Our model is multidisciplinary and recognises the nested levels of the epidemic. We create a model of the risk of severe COVID-19 and death, instead of a model of transmission. Our model allows for socio-demographic-group differentials in risk, obesity and underweight people, morbidity status and other conditioning regional and lifestyle factors. We build a hierarchical multilevel model of severe COVID-19 cases, using three different data sources: the National Family Health Survey for 2015/16, Census data for 2011 and data for COVID-19 deaths obtained cumulatively until June 2020. We provide results for 11 states of India, enabling best-yet targeting of policy actions. COVID-19 deaths in north and central India were higher in areas with older and overweight populations, and were more common among people with pre-existing health conditions, or who smoke, or who live in urban areas. Policy experts may both want to ‘follow World Health Organisation advice’ and yet also use disaggregated and spatially specific data to improve wellbeing outcomes during the pandemic. The future uses of our innovative data-combining model are numerous.

Keywords: Epidemic modelling; Latent variable; Hierarchical model; Bayesian model; Data combining; Severe COVID-19; SARS-CoV2 virus pandemic; India; Pandemic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41287-020-00333-5 Abstract (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:eurjdr:v:32:y:2020:i:5:d:10.1057_s41287-020-00333-5

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/journal/41287/PS2

DOI: 10.1057/s41287-020-00333-5

Access Statistics for this article

The European Journal of Development Research is currently edited by Spencer Henson and Natalia Lorenzoni

More articles in The European Journal of Development Research from Palgrave Macmillan, European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().