The Chinese Insurance Market: Estimating its Long-Term Growth and Size&ast

Wei Zheng (), Yongdong Liu and Gerry Dickinson ()
Additional contact information
Wei Zheng: School of Economics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, P.R. China.
Yongdong Liu: Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, P.R. China
Gerry Dickinson: Cass Business School, City University, London, 106 Bunhill Row, London EC1Y 8TZ, UK.

The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, 2008, vol. 33, issue 3, 489-506

Abstract: The mid-term and long-term growth potential of China's insurance industry is a subject of significant interest to governments, business and academia. In this paper, the “world insurance growth curve” is used in conjunction with estimates of China's future GDP growth to estimate the growth and size of China's insurance industry for the period 2006–2020. There are clearly other factors – social, political, cultural, demographic and market structure – that also have an impact, but other empirical studies have shown that the key factor in the long term is growth and development of the overall economy. Assuming that China's GDP grows over that period at a rate of 6–9 percent per year, we conclude that the possible range of China's insurance industry growth rate would be 7.7–17.9 percent, with a more likely range of 9.8–14.8 percent. In the median scenario, the average annual real growth rate for China’s insurance industry during the period 2006–2020 would be 12.3 percent. Thus, by the year 2020, the size of China’s insurance market would be 5.7 times of that of 2005, and the overall insurance penetration would be 5.6 percent, with 4 percent for life insurance and 1.6 percent for non-life insurance. The growth rate of China’s insurance industry during the period 2006–2020 would be almost double the world average and by 2020, China’s share of the world insurance market would be about 4.0 percent. The Geneva Papers (2008) 33, 489–506. doi:10.1057/gpp.2008.19

Date: 2008
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.palgrave-journals.com/gpp/journal/v33/n3/pdf/gpp200819a.pdf Link to full text PDF (application/pdf)
http://www.palgrave-journals.com/gpp/journal/v33/n3/full/gpp200819a.html Link to full text HTML (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:gpprii:v:33:y:2008:i:3:p:489-506

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/finance/journal/41288/PS2

Access Statistics for this article

The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice is currently edited by Christophe Courbage

More articles in The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice from Palgrave Macmillan, The Geneva Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().