Economic Growth and Political Survival

Paul Burke ()

Departmental Working Papers from The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics

Abstract: Using data for 160 countries for the period 1963-2001, this paper examines the short-run relationship between economic growth and changes in national leader. To address the potential endogeneity of economic growth, I use exogenous variation in commodity export prices, export partner incomes, precipitation, and temperature to instrument for a country's rate of economic growth. The results indicate that more rapid economic growth increases the short-run likelihood that national leaders will retain their positions. The findings are similar for both democracies and autocracies and indicate that faster economic growth reduces the likelihoods of both regular leader exits and irregular leader exits such as coups. The results also suggest that stronger economic growth reduces the likelihood that national leaders employ oppressive tactics against opponents.

Keywords: economic growth; politics; political survival; political change; leader turnover (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 O40 P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 87 pages
Date: 2011
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fdg and nep-pol
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Journal Article: Economic Growth and Political Survival (2012)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pas:papers:2011-06

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