The impact of pre-electoral coalitions on mayoral election outcomes in Indonesia

Blane Lewis

Departmental Working Papers from The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics

Abstract: The extent to which pre-electoral coalitions (PECs) influence executive elections in presidential systems has not been subject to rigorous empirical study. This paper uses regression discontinuity methods to identify the causal effect of PEC size on mayoral election outcomes in Indonesia. The study finds that mayoral candidates backed by PECs comprising political parties that control council seat shares exceeding first-round electoral vote thresholds are around 18-24 percentage points more likely to win those elections than their counterparts supported by smaller-sized PECs.

Keywords: Pre-election coalitions; presidential systems; subnational elections (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C21 C31 D72 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20 pages
Date: 2018
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-pol and nep-sea
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pas:papers:2018-20

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