Forecasting economic crisis using gradient measurement of development and log-logistic function

Rafal Siedlecki and Daniel Papla
Additional contact information
Rafal Siedlecki: Department of Corporate Finance and Value Management, Wroclaw University of Economics, Poland
Daniel Papla: Department of Financial Investments and Risk Management, Wroclaw University of Economics, Poland

Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), 2013, vol. 9, issue 3, 28-40

Abstract: This paper shows that regardless of how good the economic situation is, sooner or later certain difficulties will appear. Hence, the idea has emerged to give the analytical form to the logistic law based gradient measurement (synthetic measure) of selected financial data, which enables forecasting crises and economic downturns. The presented proposal of determining the economic cycle and the model of forecasting using the modified logistic function (log-logistic function) was tested with use of data regarding the Polish economy

Keywords: Law of growth; forecasting; economic crisis; time series analysis; warning signals; S-curve Journal:Business and Economic Horizons (BEH) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 C22 C53 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://academicpublishingplatforms.com/downloads/ ... unction_pp.28-40.pdf (application/pdf)
http://academicpublishingplatforms.com/article.php ... mber=11&article=1835 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pdc:jrnbeh:v:9:y:2013:i:3:p:28-40

Access Statistics for this article

Business and Economic Horizons (BEH) is currently edited by Orifjan Namozov, Ph.D.

More articles in Business and Economic Horizons (BEH) from Prague Development Center Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Jaroslav Holecek ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).