Fertility rebound and economic growth. New evidence for 18 countries over the period 1970-2011

Piotr Dominiak (), Ewa Lechman () and Anna Okonowicz ()
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Piotr Dominiak: Gdansk University of Technology, Poland
Anna Okonowicz: Gdansk University of Technology, Poland

No 28/2014, Working Papers from Institute of Economic Research

Abstract: Long-run impact of economic growth on fertility trends is ambiguous and sensitive for in-time variations. Noticeably, over last decades, economic growth has led in many countries to significant falls in total fertility rates. However, recently, in high-income economies a kind of ‘fertility rebound’ emerged (Goldstein, 2009; Luci and Thevenon, 2011; Day, 2012), which supports the hypothesis that reversal trends in total fertility rates are mainly attributed to economic growth. The paper unveils the relationship between total fertility rate changes and economic growth in 18 selected countries with fertility rebound observed, over the period 1970-2011, and detects the GDP-threshold at which the fertility rebound emerged. To report on the relationship we deploy longitudinal data analysis assuming non-linearity between examined variables. Data applied are exclusive derived from World Development Indicators 2013. Our main findings support the hypothesis on U-shaped relationship between total fertility rate and economic growth in analyzed countries in 1970-2011. Along with the previous we project the minimum level of GDP per capita (GDP-threshold) when the fertility rebound takes place.

Keywords: fertility rate; fertility rebound; economic growth; panel data analysis. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 J11 O10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-12, Revised 2014-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fdg and nep-gro
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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http://www.badania-gospodarcze.pl/images/Working_Papers/2014_No_28.pdf First version, 2014 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: FERTILITY REBOUND AND ECONOMIC GROWTH. NEW EVIDENCE FOR 18 COUNTRIES OVER THE PERIOD 1970–2011 (2015)
Working Paper: THE FERTILITY REBOUND AND ECONOMIC GROWTH. NEW EVIDENCE FOR 18 COUNTRIES OVER THE PERIOD 1970-2011 (2014)
Working Paper: Fertility rebound and economic growth. New evidence for 18 countries over the period 1970-2011 (2014)
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