Scenario discovery for a just low-carbon transition

Nicola Campigotto, Marco Catola, Andrè Cieplinksi, Simone D'Alessandro, Tiziano Distefano, Pietro Guarnieri and Till Heydenreich

Discussion Papers from Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy

Abstract: There is currently no consensus among scholars on how to achieve a just low-carbon transition. To address this issue, this paper subjects a macrosimulation model to an extensive sensitivity analysis and then fits random forests to the simulation results to identify policy combinations that can reduce carbon emissions while promoting income equality. Our find- ings indicate that interventions aimed at supporting low-income groups result in an increase in these groups’ energy demand and emissions, and that this negative effect should be off-set through a faster deployment of renewable energy sources and measures that redistribute income away from top earners. Our analysis also confirms the importance of well-known policies such as carbon taxation and working time reduction. On the other hand, we do not find energy efficiency to be crucial in achieving inequality and emission reduction goals.

Keywords: ecological macroeconomics; just transition; inequality; scenario discovery (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C63 Q56 Q57 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-02-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-env
Note: ISSN 2039-1854
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pie:dsedps:2024/304

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