FORECASTING ECONOMIC VARIABLES IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR: Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis on Survey Data

Muzafar Shah Habibullah

Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, 1997, vol. 13, issue 1, 171-184

Abstract: In the last decade, there has been an increasing interest in the hypothesis of how expectations were formed by economic agents. More recently, many applied studies have tried to test the implications of rational expectations hypo thesis-on survey data. This paper provides empirical evidence on the rationality of survey data of agricultural firms' economic forecasts on gross revenue, capital expenditure and employment. The results of this paper indicate that agricultural firms’ forecasts do not violate the statistical properties of unbiasedness, efficiency or orthogonality.

Date: 1997
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