How Brexit affects European Union power distribution

László Kóczy ()

No 1601, Working Paper Series from Óbuda University, Keleti Faculty of Business and Management

Abstract: The possible exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union will have profound economic and political effects. Here we look at a particular aspect, the power distribution in the Council of the Euro- pean Union. Since the Lisbon treaty the exit does not require new negotiations as the success of a voting initiative only depends on the number and total population of the supporting member states. Using the Shapley-Shubik power index we calculate the member states' pow- ers with and without the United Kingdom and update earlier power forecasts using the Eurostat's latest population projections. There is a remarkably sharp relation between population size and the change in power: Brexit increases the largest members', while decreases the smallest ones' powers.

Keywords: European Union; Council of the European Union; qualifed majority voting; power index; a priori voting power; demographics. JEL Codes: D72; D78; D62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 16 pages
Date: 2016
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-eec and nep-pol
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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