Social distancing to slow the US COVID-19 epidemic: Longitudinal pretest–posttest comparison group study

Mark J Siedner, Guy Harling, Zahra Reynolds, Rebecca F Gilbert, Sebastien Haneuse, Atheendar S Venkataramani and Alexander C Tsai

PLOS Medicine, 2020, vol. 17, issue 8, 1-12

Abstract: Background: Social distancing measures to address the US coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic may have notable health and social impacts. Methods and findings: We conducted a longitudinal pretest–posttest comparison group study to estimate the change in COVID-19 case growth before versus after implementation of statewide social distancing measures in the US. The primary exposure was time before (14 days prior to, and through 3 days after) versus after (beginning 4 days after, to up to 21 days after) implementation of the first statewide social distancing measures. Statewide restrictions on internal movement were examined as a secondary exposure. The primary outcome was the COVID-19 case growth rate. The secondary outcome was the COVID-19-attributed mortality growth rate. All states initiated social distancing measures between March 10 and March 25, 2020. The mean daily COVID-19 case growth rate decreased beginning 4 days after implementation of the first statewide social distancing measures, by 0.9% per day (95% CI −1.4% to −0.4%; P

Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pmed00:1003244

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003244

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