 Impact of sars-cov-2 interventions on dengue transmissionJue Tao Lim, Borame Sue Lee Dickens, Lawrence Zheng Xiong Chew, Esther Li Wen Choo, Joel Ruihan Koo, Joel Aik, Lee Ching Ng and Alex R Cook PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2020, vol. 14, issue 10, 1-17 Abstract: An estimated 105 million dengue infections occur per year across 120 countries, where traditional vector control is the primary control strategy to reduce contact between mosquito vectors and people. The ongoing sars-cov-2 pandemic has resulted in dramatic reductions in human mobility due to social distancing measures; the effects on vector-borne illnesses are not known. Here we examine the pre and post differences of dengue case counts in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, and estimate the effects of social distancing as a treatment effect whilst adjusting for temporal confounders. We found that social distancing is expected to lead to 4.32 additional cases per 100,000 individuals in Thailand per month, which equates to 170 more cases per month in the Bangkok province (95% CI: 100–242) and 2008 cases in the country as a whole (95% CI: 1170–2846). Social distancing policy estimates for Thailand were also found to be robust to model misspecification, and variable addition and omission. Conversely, no significant impact on dengue transmission was found in Singapore or Malaysia. Across country disparities in social distancing policy effects on reported dengue cases are reasoned to be driven by differences in workplace-residence structure, with an increase in transmission risk of arboviruses from social distancing primarily through heightened exposure to vectors in elevated time spent at residences, demonstrating the need to understand the effects of location on dengue transmission risk under novel population mixing conditions such as those under social distancing policies.Author summary: Significant healthcare burdens arise from dengue and traditional vector control is the primary control strategy to reduce dengue transmission potential. The ongoing sars-cov-2 pandemic has resulted in dramatic reductions in human mobility due to social distancing measures; the effects on vector-borne illnesses are not known. This paper examines the pre and post differences of dengue case counts in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, and estimate the effects of social distancing as a treatment effect whilst accounting for temporal confounders. We found that social distancing is expected to lead to an increase in the number of cases in Thailand, with the largest increase arising from Bangkok province. Social distancing policy estimates for Thailand were also found to be robust in sensitivity analysis. Conversely, no significant impact on dengue transmission was found in Singapore or Malaysia. Across country disparities in social distancing policy effects on reported dengue cases are reasoned to be driven by differences in workplace-residence structure, with an increase in transmission risk of arboviruses from social distancing primarily through heightened exposure to vectors in elevated time spent at residences, demonstrating the need to understand the effects of location on dengue transmission risk under novel population mixing conditions such as those under social distancing policies. Date: 2020 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pntd00:0008719 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008719 Access Statistics for this article More articles in PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases from Public Library of Science |
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