A meta-analysis of climate migration literature

Barbora Šedová (), Lucia Čizmaziová and Athene Cook
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Barbora Šedová: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), University of Potsdam
Lucia Čizmaziová: Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)
Athene Cook: Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)

No 29, CEPA Discussion Papers from Center for Economic Policy Analysis

Abstract: The large literature that aims to find evidence of climate migration delivers mixed findings. This meta-regression analysis i) summarizes direct links between adverse climatic events and migration, ii) maps patterns of climate migration, and iii) explains the variation in outcomes. Using a set of limited dependent variable models, we meta-analyze thus-far the most comprehensive sample of 3,625 estimates from 116 original studies and produce novel insights on climate migration. We find that extremely high temperatures and drying conditions increase migration. We do not find a significant effect of sudden-onset events. Climate migration is most likely to emerge due to contemporaneous events, to originate in rural areas and to take place in middle-income countries, internally, to cities. The likelihood to become trapped in affected areas is higher for women and in low-income countries, particularly in Africa. We uniquely quantify how pitfalls typical for the broader empirical climate impact literature affect climate migration findings. We also find evidence of different publication biases.

Keywords: migration; climate change; meta-analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F22 O15 Q54 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-dev, nep-env and nep-mig
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pot:cepadp:29

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