EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Projecting post-crisis house and equity prices since the 1870s:not all crises are alike

Shuddhasattwa Rafiq

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper projects house and equity prices following different types of macroeconomic shocks since the 1870s in 17 western economies. In doing so, we classify macroeconomic downturns into three distinct groups: normal recessions, financial recessions, and disasters. By combining three newly available historical data sets spanning 143 years and by employing local projection technique, this study finds that financial recessions have the most detrimental effect and cause substantial decreases in house prices, stock prices and construction costs. Post-crisis stock price declines are observed through the whole sample period, but both house prices and construction costs were the most vulnerable to crises after WWII. The study also finds that stock prices drop substantially immediately after financial crises and rebound within four to six years, while shocks to house prices are more persistent. This asymmetry of persistence and magnitude of shocks among housing and equity prices might have had a substantial impact on post-recession wealth re-distribution since WWII as lower and middle class families are more likely to have their wealth invested in a home rather than in other financial investments like stocks.

Keywords: Financial crisis; Normal recessions; House prices; Stock prices; Local projection. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E5 E52 E58 G12 R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his, nep-mac and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/103164/1/MPRA_paper_103164.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:103164

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter (winter@lmu.de).

 
Page updated 2025-03-19
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:103164