GDP Growth Forecasts of the Reserve Bank of India – A Performance Assessment

Raj Rajesh and Vineet Srivastava

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This article evaluates the annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth projections of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) against final official estimates of GDP, which are normally released with a lag of about three years. During 1998-99 to 2016-17, on an average, growth projections underestimated realised growth. Forecast errors, committed in both directions, were free of any systematic bias, and remained modest in a cross-country context.

Keywords: Forecast; error; accuracy; performance; GDP; growth; India (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E0 E01 E59 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-07-01, Revised 2020-10-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa and nep-mac
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