The dynamic effects of infectious disease outbreaks: the case of pandemic influenza and human coronavirus

George Verikios

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Pandemic influenza is a regularly recurring form of infectious disease; this work analyses its economic effects. Like many other infectious diseases influenza pandemics are usually of short, sharp duration. Human coronavirus is a less regularly recurring infectious disease. The human coronavirus pandemic of 2019 (COVID-19) has pre-sented with seemingly high transmissibility and led to extraordinary socioeconomic disruption due to severe preventative measures by governments. To understand and compare these events, epidemiological and economic models are linked to capture the transmission of a pandemic from regional populations to regional economies and then across regional economies. In contrast to past pandemics, COVID-19 is likely to be of longer duration and more severe in its economic effects given the greater uncertainty surrounding its nature. The analysis in-dicates how economies are likely to be affected due to the risk-modifying behaviour in the form of preventative measures taken in response to the latest novel pandemic virus.

Keywords: Computable general equilibrium; Human coronavirus; COVID-19; Infectious diseases; Pandemic influenza; Periodicity; Trade linkages (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 E32 F15 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:104434

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