Predicting choice-averse and choice-loving behaviors in a field experiment with actual shoppers

David Ong ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: A large body of chiefly laboratory research has attempted to demonstrate that people can exhibit choice-averse behavior from cognitive overload when faced with many options. However, meta-analyses of these studies, which are generally of one or two product lines, reveal conflicting results. Findings of choice-averse behavior are balanced by findings of choice-loving behavior. Unexplored is the possibility that many consumers may purchase to reveal their tastes for unfamiliar products, rather than attempt to forecast their tastes before purchase. I model such ‘sampling-search’ behavior and predict that the purchases of unfamiliar consumers increase with the available number of varieties for popular/mainstream product lines and decrease for niche product lines. To test these predictions, I develop a measure of popularity based on a survey of 1,440 shoppers for their preferences over 24 product lines with 339 varieties at a large supermarket in China. 35,694 shoppers were video recorded after the varieties they faced on shelves were randomly reduced. As found in the meta-studies, choice-averse behavior was balanced by choice-loving behavior. However, as predicted, the probability of choice-loving behavior increases with the number of available varieties for popular product lines, whereas choice-averse behavior increases with available varieties for niche product lines. These findings suggest that increasing the number of varieties has predictable opposing effects on sales, depending upon the popularity of the product line, and opens the possibility of reconciling apparently conflicting prior results.

Keywords: field experiment; choice overload; choice-aversion; consumer search (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C93 D83 M31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-06-21
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cbe, nep-dcm, nep-exp, nep-mkt and nep-upt
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Forthcoming in Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization August.188(2021): pp. 46-71

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Journal Article: Predicting choice-averse and choice-loving behaviors in a field experiment with actual shoppers (2021)
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