Роль коронавирусной пандемии и развала сделки ОПЕК+ в динамике цены на нефть в 2020 году

The role of the coronavirus pandemic and the collapse of the OPEC + deal in the dynamics of oil prices in 2020

Daniil Lomonosov

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: World oil prices in 2020 have undergone tangible shocks, which are associated primarily with two events - the collapse of the OPEC+ deal and the coronavirus pandemic. Based on the BVAR model of the oil market, the quantitative role of these events in the dynamics of oil prices was assessed, and the channels of their influence through structural shocks were identified. In the first half of 2020, at the time of the greatest decline, lack of consistency between oil producing countries, expectations of further growth in oil supply and uncertainty about a recovery in global demand played a dominant role, reducing oil prices by 86% at the peak of the decline. The direct contribution of the decline in the economic activity due to restrictive measures was more modest, reducing the price by 27.7% in April 2020. However, after reaching new agreements within the OPEC+ deal and some adaptation to the new conditions of a number of countries, the direction of the dynamics of oil prices changed. The main factor behind the rise in prices in the second half of the year, according to the model, is a noticeable decline in world oil production, which on average has increased the price of oil by 20.8% since May.

Keywords: Oil prices; pandemic; OPEC+; global economic activity shock; oil supply shock; specific oil demand shock (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E32 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-07-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-ene, nep-isf and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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