Эконометрический анализ факторов банкротств российских компаний в обрабатывающем секторе

Econometric Analysis of Bankruptcy Factors for Russian Companies in the Manufacturing Industry

Olga Bekirova and Andrey Zubarev

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This work is devoted to the analysis of the factors influencing the bankruptcy of the Russian manufacturing industry companies for the period from 2012 to 2020. Logistic regression was used as an econometric tool for the modelling the probability of companies’ default. According to the results, financial indicators of profitability, liquidity and business activity play a significant role in explaining the probability of default of Russian manufacturing companies. Special attention was paid to the impact on the probability of bankruptcy of corporate governance and ownership structure factors. First, including these indicators into the model led to an increase in its predictive power. Secondly, CEO-duality increases the stability of the company, and too high maximum share of ownership increases the likelihood of bankruptcy.

Keywords: probability of default; logistic regression; corporate governance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C25 C51 G32 G33 G34 L60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis and nep-rmg
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:114969

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