Les conséquences des élections présidentielles de 2023 au Nigéria et son impact sur la sous-région

The aftermath of Nigeria’s 2023 presidential elections and its impact on the sub-region

Dirk Kohnert

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Presidential elections were held in Nigeria on 25 February 2023. The candidate of Nigeria's ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) party Bola Ahmed Tinubu won the election. He was known as a political 'godfather' in the South West. His major contender, Atiku Abubakar, 76, running on behalf of the major oppositional People's Democratic Party (PDP) lost, as well as the third, Peter Obi, 61, a candidate for the little-known Labor Party. He had hoped to break the two-party system that ruled the country since the end of military rule. But he failed despite enjoying passionate support on social media, especially among the Nigerian youth. Acting President Buhari, whose term has ended, had renewed his call for foreign powers not to interfere in Nigeria's internal affairs. Given the recent history of military coups in West Africa, including Russia's involvement, the military command again dismissed coup rumours. However, the latter were largely ignored by the general public anyway. Most people focused on more pressing concerns such as insecurity, fuel shortages and a shortage of new banknotes. Although Nigeria is a resource-rich country and oil and gas revenues have funded national budgets for decades, around 40% of Nigerians (83 million people) live below the poverty line while another 25% (53 million) are at risk. So far, Nigeria has not been able to benefit from rising global oil prices. Oil production has fallen to historic lows since 2021. Gasoline subsidies continue to consume too much of oil revenue. Nigeria's growth prospects are bleak due to further declines in oil production and heightened uncertainty. The new president has to cooperate closely with ECOWAS to tackle gang violence and insecurity in the West African region. The cooperation documents Nigeria's role as a political, economic and security policy hegemon in West Africa, often said ‘too big to fail’, as it is by far the largest and most powerful nation in sub-Saharan Africa alongside South Africa.

Keywords: Nigeria; élection présidentielle; gouvernance; coups d'État; théorie du complot; État profond; pauvreté; Boko Haram; commerce international; migration; développement durable; Afrique de l'Ouest; CEDEAO; Afrique subsaharienne; études africaines (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D31 D62 D63 D72 D74 E26 F15 F22 F35 F52 F63 N17 N37 N47 O17 O35 Z13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-03-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis
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