Assessing Income Convergence with a Long-Run Forecasting Approach: Some New Results

Artur Silva Lopes ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Relying on low frequency econometric methods, a new simple procedure to assess international income convergence is introduced. It implements the long-run forecasting definition and discards short and medium-term information contents of the data as these may produce misleading evidence. Robustness to non-stationarities is achieved using first differences of (logged) per capita incomes. Application to a selected sample of 90 different countries provides mixed but generally more positive evidence than most previous studies. Nevertheless, it casts many doubts on the inevitability of income convergence, at least in practically relevant time frames and as worldwide phenomenon.

Keywords: ncome convergence; growth empirics; low frequency; interval forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 N10 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-02-06, Revised 2022-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-gro
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Journal Article: Assessing Income Convergence with a Long‐run Forecasting Approach: Some New Results (2025)
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