Managing infectious diseases over connected populations: a non-convex optimal control

Michele Graziano Ceddia

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The paper develops an optimal control model to analyse various management options for infectious diseases that occur in metapopulations, under both Nash and cooperative behaviour. As pathogens are renewable resources with negative value, the problem may be non-convex. Since the disease can be transmitted across various connected populations, externalities are involved. Both aspects deserve attention as two issues arise: a) is eradication of the disease in finite time preferable to indefinite treatment? b) are cooperative solutions well-behaved? The problem is solved numerically and the results indicate that while eradication is likely to be an optimal strategy when initial levels of infections are relatively low, the internalisation of between-population externalities (as indicated by the first order necessary conditions of the cooperative optimal control problem) might not always be possible. Also, ignoring these two aspects can lead to inadequate policy design.

Keywords: infectious diseases; metapopulation; non-convexities; optimal control (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C02 C61 C71 C72 H00 Q28 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010, Revised 2010
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env and nep-hea
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