Forecasting model of small scale industrial sector of West Bengal

Soumitra Kumar Bera

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This study seeks to generate the forecasts for the small scale industrial sector of West Bengal for the ensuing decade till 2019-20. Forecasts have been generated for production, direct employment, capital formation and number of units in this sector. Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model has been used taking the lead time of 13 years. The analysis of forecasted figures has revealed that the fixed capital investment and production would experience significant growth during the lead time of thirteen years. Number of units and employment are expected to observe meager growth during this period indicating low possibility of absorption of labor force in this sector. In the light of the forecasts, it is required on the part of the state government to take all concerted efforts and initiatives to strengthen the industrial base in West Bengal. In this regard catastrophic changes are required so far as industrial policy of West Bengal is concerned.

Keywords: Stationarity; ARIMA models; Forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 C22 C51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-11-20
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