Holding together or falling apart:Results of gravity equation of the CIS trade

Elvira Kurmanalieva and Evgeny Vinokurov
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Евгений Юрьевич Винокуров

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The main purpose of this paper is to assess intra-regional trade within the CIS by looking at the impact of numerous trade agreements in the region. Applying a gravity model on a set of 162 countries, we attempt to assess dynamics of intra-regional trade of various trade agreements between 1995 and 2008 in order to identify trade creation and trade diversion effects. We propose and empirically test three explanations of the CIS intra-regional trade: 1) home bias effect, 2) holding together effect and 3) holdup effect. Finally, we perform a simulation of potential trade and see to what extent twelve post-Soviet states and all their groupings would, ceteris paribus, have traded with each other.

Keywords: Soviet Union; CIS; EurAsEC; CES; Gravity equation; Trade potential; Panel data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 F13 F15 O52 O54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-cmp, nep-int and nep-tra
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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