Stochastic Kaya model and its applications

In Chang Hwang

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper develops a stochastic Kaya model. The elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions with respect to population, per capita GDP, energy efficiency, and fossil fuel dependence is estimated using the panel data of 132 countries from 1960 to 2010. As an application of the stochastic Kaya model, we investigate the achievement of each nation to the stabilization of carbon emissions with economic development, using a method of index decomposition analysis. In addition, carbon emissions are projected by 2050 using the model. One of the main findings is that assuming the unit elasticity for each driving force underestimates the scale effect (population change and economic growth) and overestimates the counteracting technology effect. This results in significant differences in quantifying driving forces of the changes in carbon emissions and in future emissions projections.

Keywords: Climate change policy; CO2 emissions; emissions scenarios; decomposition analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q54 Q56 Q57 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-12-13
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env and nep-ger
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:55099

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