On the Nominal Interest Rate Yield Response to Net Government Borrowing in the U.S.: An Empirical Analysis with Robustness Tests

Gigi Alexander () and Maggie Foley ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This study provides current empirical evidence on the impact of net U.S. government borrowing (budget deficits) on the nominal interest rate yield on ten-year Treasury notes. The model includes an ex ante real short-term real interest rate yield, an ex ante real long-term interest rate yield, the monetary base as a percent of GDP, expected future inflation, the percentage growth rate of real GDP, net financial capital inflows, and other variables. This study uses annual data and then uses quarterly data for the periods 1971-2008 and 1971-2012. Autoregressive two-stage least squares estimates imply that the federal budget deficit, expressed as a percent of GDP, exercises a positive and statistically significant impact on the nominal interest rate yield on ten-year Treasury notes. Robustness tests are provided in an Appendix.

Keywords: nominal interest; net government borrowing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E43 E52 H62 O41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-06-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba and nep-mac
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:56968

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