La brecha del producto y el producto potencial en Venezuela: una estimación SVAR

Output Gap and Potential GDP in Venezuela: A SVAR Estimation

Rafael Alexis Acevedo Rueda, José U. Mora Mora and Pedro Alexander Harmath Fernández

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper estimates the GDP gap in Venezuela by means of the structural VAR methodology and the Blanchard and Quah decomposition for the period 1999:1-2010:4. We use quarterly data for the inflation rate, real GDP, unemployment rate, and oil prices. We identify fiscal and monetary innovations on the demand side and technological and labor market disturbances on the supply side. Empirical results are consistent with the ones found the literature and reveal that even though there is a wide gap between real and potential GDP at the beginning of the period, it tends to narrow towards the end of the period as a result of the rise in oil prices. The GDP gap out of sample forecast shows that this gap, eventually, could fall as a result of the contraction in economic activity during 2009 and 2010.

Keywords: Business cycles; potential output; inflation; oil prices; SVAR models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C01 E22 O47 P44 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012, Revised 2013
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Published in Desarrollo y Sociedad primer semestre (2013): pp. 43-81

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/58691/1/MPRA_paper_58691.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:58691

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().